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Subscription Churn & MRR Calculator

Updated .

This calculator projects where your subscriber base and MRR land over the coming months at your current churn and acquisition rate, plus average subscriber lifetime, lifetime value, and the steady-state ceiling your base converges toward.

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    Send me my subscription projection

    We'll email the twelve-month model with your churn and acquisition assumptions.

    How this is calculated

    Average subscriber lifetime is the reciprocal of monthly churn. At 7.5% churn the average subscriber stays about 13 months; at 5% they stay 20. That relationship is why churn reduction compounds so much harder than price increases — a small change in the denominator moves lifetime value a long way.

    The projection runs month by month, applying churn to the existing base and then adding new subscribers. Because churn takes a percentage while acquisition adds a fixed number, the base does not grow forever: it converges on new subscribers divided by churn rate. That ceiling is shown at the bottom, and it is often a sobering number.

    Two simplifications worth knowing. Churn is treated as constant, whereas in reality it is far higher in the first few cycles than later. And this measures customer churn, not revenue churn — if your cancellations skew toward high-value plans, revenue is falling faster than subscriber count suggests.

    MRR = subscribers × monthly value Average lifetime = 1 ÷ monthly churn rate Lifetime profit = monthly value × lifetime × gross margin % Break-even adds = subscribers × churn rate Steady-state base = new subscribers per month ÷ churn rate Projection = subscribers × (1 − churn) + new, repeated each month

    Questions merchants ask

    What is a good monthly churn rate for a subscription box?

    Consumable replenishment subscriptions generally hold subscribers far longer than curated or discovery boxes, so a single benchmark is misleading. Track your own trend and, more usefully, churn by cohort month — the first two or three cycles usually dominate total losses.

    Why does my subscriber count stop growing?

    Because churn removes a percentage while acquisition adds a fixed number. Once the base is large enough that the percentage lost equals the number added, growth stops. The ceiling is new subscribers divided by churn rate, shown above.

    Should I focus on reducing churn or acquiring more subscribers?

    Churn first, in most cases. Halving churn doubles average lifetime and therefore doubles lifetime value, while also raising the ceiling on your subscriber base. Acquisition raises the ceiling too, but you pay for it every month.

    Does this model revenue churn or customer churn?

    Customer churn. If cancellations concentrate among your higher-value plans, revenue falls faster than this projection shows. Run it separately per plan tier if your price points differ significantly.

    Estimates only. Enter your own processing rates and costs — nothing here is pulled from a platform price list, so it stays accurate as fees change.